People are already fighting for water. Sadly, they’ll be doing it even more in the future.

Franck Galland is acknowledged as one of the leading French specialists on water resource security matters. The author of four acclaimed books (Guerre et eau¹, Le Grand Jeu : chroniques géopolitiques de l’eau², Eau & conflictualités³, L’eau : géopolitique, enjeux, stratégies⁴), he has also written more than 50 articles and analyses on strategic water resource issues, published in several international relations and defence journals.

Your latest book is entitled Guerre et eau (War and water). Is fighting wars around water a new thing?

F.G.: No, but sadly the subject is growing in importance.During the two world conflicts, the combatants waged warboth using water (defensive flooding) and against water (targeted bombing of hydraulic infrastructure). More recent events, like those of the Kakhovka Dam across the Dnieper River5, have brought the notion back to the fore, with devastating consequences on people, and what could be termed a real ecocide. In Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State also attacked life-essential infrastructure. In fact, ever since ancient times and through to the present day, people have regularly fought using water as a weapon. But in the past 20 years, what’s new is the occurrence of conflict caused by water. Cross-border and regional conflicts arise, but also conflicts of use, between water for farming, industrial or domestic use. In some parts of the world, people are already fighting for water. Sadly, they will be doing it even more in the future due to the increasing scarcity of the resource and global warming.

From the First World War to the present day, Guerre et eau is the first essay aimed at a general public readership on the strategic importance of water resources in warfare. Drawing on unprecedented military archives and diplomatic sources, Franck Galland offers both a new insight into the conflicts that have affected and continue to affect our world, and a better understanding of the geopolitical issues that natural resources embody.

Are there other reasons for these conflicts?

F.G.: Yes: demographic growth. With nearly 110 million inhabitants, Egypt for example is obliged to defuse a demographic time bomb while its available renewable water resources are diminishing. At the same time, its large upstream neighbour Ethiopia is beginning to display its water ambitions with the construction of the Renaissance Dam. The 74 billion cubic metre reservoir will be the largest in Africa, and will effectively be perceived as a threat to the security and sovereignty of Egypt further downriver. The Ethiopians began the fourth phase of filling the reservoir during the summer, without any hydro-diplomatic solution having been found, even if positive signals emerged on the fringe of the regional discussions around the crisis currently hitting Sudan. But the question will remain: how can Egypt cope with the growth of its population and guarantee food security, given this new water insecurity brought about by the Renaissance Dam and the consequences of climate change? This explains why the United Nations Security Council receives regular representations from Egypt on this issue, in an attempt to achieve shared regional management of infrastructure on the Nile.

The pressure on resources, climate change and rapid demographic growth are the main reasons behind conflicts around water

Franck Galland , French specialists on water resource security matters

In your various books, you regularly refer to the “diagonal thirst line”. Are there other currently or potentially affected countries?

F.G.: Starting in Morocco, this diagonal extends southwards, and notably towards the Sahel. In the G5 Sahel states⁷, 150 million people have seen their water resources diminish by 40% since the year 2000. To compound the problem, this population is set to double between now and 2030. The diagonal is also intensifying. We can take the example of India, the most populous country in the world, ahead of China, with 1.4 billion inhabitants. Its water management has not yet been sufficiently reformed. Sixty percent of its agriculture and 85% of its water for domestic use is dependent on pumping from underground reserves. But today water table levels are dropping dramatically in certain Indian provinces. With the climate change and rainfall patterns that have become erratic, the problem is getting worse. As a result, India is encountering increasing difficulties in getting access to raw water.

So is this diagonal line not a permanent one?

F.G.: No, absolutely not. Contrary to India, China, through technology and an alternative water supply, is attempting to tackle the issues relating to scarcity. It is true that the growth of this country has happened through water, and all the leaders of modern-day China since Mao have had a relationship of power towards water. Following the diversion projects on the Yangtze River, the “Blue River”, China is now turning to desalination. In the next ten years, the country will become one of the five largest users of this technology. The world champion in terms of installed capacity is currently Saudi Arabia. In Europe, the leader is Spain, which stands fifth globally. China is also going to increasingly adopt, like Singapore and Israel, the reuse of wastewater to increase its water supply even further. Therefore, while China remains a part of this diagonal thirst line, it is strategically attempting to mitigate its effects.

The diagonal thirst line is extending and even intensifying, in particular in India. China is stepping up efforts to mitigate its effects.

Franck Galland , French specialists on water resource security matters

Is China an exception, or have other countries also reacted?

F.G.: The other good example is Morocco. When King Hassan II came to the throne in 1961, water immediately became his strategic priority. Thirty years later, 100 dams had been built thanks to a particularly effective administration and talented engineers. Public private partnerships were also signed to good effect. This country thus invested massively, in the belief that water was both a security-related and a political issue. HM Mohamed VI is carrying on the work of his father but adding his personal touch in terms of resilience and modernity. Today, with climate change, rainfall is less frequent in Morocco and the reservoirs are only 20 to 30% full. Consequently, Morocco too is turning to desalination and wastewater reuse. From one extremity of the diagonal to the other, the examples of China and Morocco prove that nothing is inevitable, and all is not lost.

In 2016, global investment in savings on water supply and treatment only accounted for 2.6% of the 455 billion dollars devoted to the fight against climate change. Why this lack of interest? Has there been any improvement since 2016?

F.G.: Since 2016, the improvement has been insufficient. Today, given the challenges ahead, you would need to multiply by ten or even 100 the sums that are being spent! Adopting desalination or the reuse of wastewater calls for massive investment, with the goal of increasing the supply of water. What costs money is both to work on demand, with the renovation of water mains for example, which in France costs €315 per linear metre for a buried pipe, but also to increase the available supply in regions that need it. These investments will undoubtedly require higher water prices, which in France are about the same as the European average.

In our country, the debate around water too often focuses on simply the price of water, whereas a concession holder or public operator must be able to perform its job in conditions that allow them to manage existing infrastructure properly and conserve the resource effectively. Too many regions find themselves at breaking point through lack of vision and commitment. Due to an absence of master plans and investment programmes, operators do not always receive the sufficient resources: lack of interconnections, little new infrastructure, the bare minimum in leak reduction programmes, etc. This is all down to the failings of policymakers.

The “water pays for water” model must unquestionably be revisited, because mass investment must be planned.

Franck Galland , French specialists on water resource security matters

Let’s be frank and realistic: awarding the operation contract to the lowest financial and technical bidder is no longer a feasible option, given the increasing scarcity that we are experiencing. Furthermore, the “water pays for water”⁹ model must unquestionably be revisited, since we are facing massive investment needs aimed at preserving resources but also fighting extreme climate events. There is much talk of drought and heat waves in France. But let’s not forget that climate change also brings about exceptional rainfall events, as illustrated by Storm Alex in October 2020. Robust infrastructure is today necessary to better cope with floods from rainfall and their severe consequence on towns and cities. Our model of urban resilience must be seriously redesigned without neglecting any technical or technological solutions. But what is the most “dramatic” for the profession is that water is only visible when there is too little or too much of it. And yet, behind water management, there is a whole engineering discipline and human know-how of which we can be proud, but which must be better and more often highlighted.

So we need to explain more extensively that water isn’t something to be taken for granted: that behind this resource there are essential and increasingly complex jobs?

F.G.: The profession must show its true value and its essential and vital role for populations. In addition, there is a big challenge in terms of new recruitment, with a large workforce set to retire between now and 2030. We must therefore give a better image to jobs in water, their technical and intellectual utility, and their critical function. The subjects of training and job appeal also remain more crucial than ever. Even by reforming and massively investing in water, without the men and women to operate, the equation will be impossible to solve.

Even by reforming and massively investing in water, without the men and women to operate, the equation will be impossible to solve.

Franck Galland , French specialists on water resource security matters

You just referred to reusing wastewater. In France, the figure is below 1%. Why the disparity? Which countries are doing the best on this subject?

F.G.: The most active countries are those which were confronted very early on with the increasing scarcity of water resources, and which have found a way to adapt. In this area, Israel is number one. Ninety percent of wastewater is reused and reinjected in closed-circuit for agricultural watering, human consumption, industrial use, etc. Singapore is just behind them. In 1960, when it gained independence, this country relied on Malaysia for 100% of its water supply. Singapore therefore developed an alternative water supply, mainly based on reusing wastewater. In 2060, for the centenary of its independence, Singapore expects to be self-sufficient. The city-state will get 50% of its water from reused wastewater, 25% from desalination, and 25% from its own water resources (rainwater storage, groundwater, surface water). Meanwhile in Europe, 15% of Spanish wastewater is reused. Italy stands at 8%. So why are the French lagging behind? It’s down to political, regulatory and technical reasons. Our networks have not been designed for this purpose. In France, we treat wastewater, then we return it to nature clean. We also have very high sanitary standards with an administration that has shown itself to be very (too) cautious on the subject. If we had reacted earlier with adequate infrastructure, such as ReUse modules added to wastewater treatment plants, we would be well above our current wastewater reuse rate of 1%.

What are the dangers if countries do not address this question of access to water? Are you optimistic about this awareness?

F.G.: Generally speaking, people seem more concerned about 5G than about visible and buried hydraulic infrastructure. I think that’s a big shame. With very few exceptions, we lack the political vision for infrastructure, its maintenance in operational condition, and its development. It’s a clearsighted but somewhat bitter assessment that I offer, if we compare ourselves with what happened during the Trente Glorieuses (three decades of financial prosperity in France, c. 1945-1975). But since ambition is in the method, we need a lot of voices to speak out to raise water to the status of a strategic priority. Policymakers must believe in it as such and embrace the subject. Just take a look at what has been done by other European countries such as Spain, Holland or Belgium. There has been massive investment in Flanders and Wallonia in the past 20 years, where regional water highways have been created with the financial support of the European Investment Bank. It therefore merely requires political willpower and financial capacity. With the resources that they will be allocated, groups such as SUEZ have the ability to put into action the public decisions taken. But optimism should not come at the expense of reason. Human resource management remains the prerequisite for our future. If tomorrow, we get the green light for action but lack the skills to fulfil it, we will remain stuck in the mud. It is therefore urgent to offer an HR outlook to engineers, electro-mechanics and control technicians, which we need so flagrantly today and will need even more tomorrow.

1) pub. Robert Laffont, March 2021.

2) pub. CNRS Éditions, March 2014.

3) pub. Éditions Choiseul, January 2012.

4) pub. CNRS Éditions, September 2008.

5) The Kakhovka hydroelectric dam was destroyed overnight on 6 June 2023 during the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

6) This vast area encompasses North Africa, the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, part of central Asia and the northern half of China.

7) The G5 Sahel is a strategic and military alliance of countries formed to fight Islamic terrorist organisations. They include Mauritania, Niger and Chad.

8) United Nations World Water Development Report 2020.

9) Through their water bills, users pay for most of the spending relating to the management of the water they consume. The budgets of municipalities, for water and wastewater services, must be self-sufficient, with income balancing out expenditure.

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